President Ronald Reagan, saw the film during an opening weekend screening at Camp David, Reagan was fascinated by the film, so much so that the following week he stopped a meeting regarding upcoming nuclear negotiations with the Russians to give everyone in the room a full breakdown of the plot. When he was finished, he asked General John W. Vessey Jr.—then the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff—to look into just how plausible the film was. Vessey did some research and determined that WarGames actually was a prescient indicator of a rising threat in the (then) very new world of cybersecurity. A little more than a year later, Reagan signed a classified national security directive titled “National Policy on Telecommunications and Automated Information Systems Security.” It was the first computer security directive given by a president, all because he’d seen a movie about a kid who wanted to play some computer games. - Mental Floss
I've been mulling over this idea for a while, and my understanding has been up and down. So, bear with me if it seems a little anxious or unclear—there isn't much straightforward information. A few tweets have helped, but the upcoming Bitcoin halving has sparked many ideas in my mind, helping me connect some dots.
Initially, I was intrigued by the long-term potential of starting a Bitcoin-based business and whether it's truly 'worth the effort.' This has been a recurring question in the bitcoin startup ecosystem since 2021 when I was first exposed. For some context (at the Lab, we often joke about whether we should all just opt for conventional jobs.) To say that working in the Bitcoin space is challenging would be an understatement.
I've discussed this on podcasts with Odell and Max earlier this year, but the real epiphany came when I read Jimmy's post a few nights ago. As I pondered over it, it became evident that there are only two things truly worth holding onto for a Bitcoiner in the future: Bitcoin itself and equity in a Bitcoin company, both of which hold immense financial returns.
At first, you might think this makes no sense because Bitcoin's inherent value should always surpass any return from a Bitcoin company. Before a Bitcoin ETF, that would have been true, but now that we have one, the game has changed.
As I've mentioned on SNL, Bitcoin in a post-ETF world is different—so much so that we are in a zero-sum game. Bitcoin remains the main asset, but if you look to the future, the next best thing is a Bitcoin-focused business.
Sooner or later, every company will hold some Bitcoin, whether they realize it or not. Bitcoin will find its way onto their balance sheets, and that's the direction we're heading in. If you're on the sidelines, consider joining the wave.
One interesting trend to watch is the growing interest at the Lab, with more 9-to-5 workers coming in during evenings and weekends to work on their Bitcoin business ideas. It's not a secret that we're all about shipping builders at PlebLab, while those builders focus on shipping products for their respective companies.
This might seem all over the place, but that's where my thoughts are. I plan to revisit this topic as it becomes clearer, digging deeper into the details and strategies to navigate this thought process. The blueprint for Bitcoin business ventures is still being drawn, and we're at the forefront of this movement, building from the ground up. The first thing in this effort is sharing this information with the masses.
Defining the Bitcoin Zero-Sum Game
In economic theory, a zero-sum game is defined as a scenario where the gain in utility for one participant is exactly balanced by a corresponding loss in another's utility.
ShadowPlay Concept
This concept resonates deeply with me lately: Bitcoin, which is distinguished by its strict limit of 21 million. In this fixed supply structure, acquiring more Bitcoin requires another individual or company to part with their share. Yet, this narrative continues beyond this exchange when playing out the scenario.
Unlike trad currencies, which governments can issue without limit, Bitcoin's capped supply introduces a unique dynamic among its holders. We call it NGU. This means that Bitcoin's value is not static—it can rise, weaving complexity into what might otherwise be simple transactions.
This dynamic between a finite quantity and a fluctuating value creates a fruitful bounty for all who play, ultimately enriching the ecosystem of Bitcoin. This transforms the zero-sum nature of transactional exchanges into a layered interaction, highlighting the mechanics of possession and the evolving significance of what is possessed and how it is used or leveraged.
Why the term 'ShadowPlay'? There is more beneath the surface than is immediately apparent, like watching shadows interact in a play where the full context or form isn't always visible. Bitcoin's economic dynamics suggest a deeper game of strategy and foresight influenced by Bitcoin's scarcity and potential for value increase.
Defining the Players in this Bitcoin Zero-Sum Game
The "players" in this scenario are the current and potential holders of Bitcoin. This includes individual investors, traders, institutional holders, and companies that might consider adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets.
Bitcoin in a Post-ETF World
Historically, economies at scale have gravitated towards money that retains its value over time. Gold became a global standard due to its scarcity and durability, qualities that Bitcoin shares. With the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs, Bitcoin's position as a modern equivalent of gold strengthens as these financial instruments increase its accessibility to a broader range of investors. The serious risk is the centralization that will take place. With the decreasing supply now to 3.125, this puts more friction in between aquiring and holding Bitcoin.
The barrier to entry for trad investors is significantly reduced, enabling more people to gain exposure to Bitcoin without dealing directly with the complexities of wallets and private keys. This broader accessibility can lead to increased demand, further reinforcing Bitcoin's zero-sum aspect: early adopters benefit from its growing value, while later entrants may face higher costs to acquire the same asset.
What is the Primary Goal?
Whoever holds the most Bitcoin wins!
Past, Present, and Future
New paradigms drive change. As more companies explore Bitcoin's potential, the convergence of past, present, and future becomes more apparent. The risks and rewards of adopting Bitcoin are shaping corporate strategies and guiding businesses through the uncertainty of the 2020s. This underscores the challenges and opportunities of embracing change head-on and navigating a world where the game has already started, even if many still don't know they're playing.
Once a fringe digital asset, Bitcoin finds a place on corporate balance sheets. Companies need to balance fiduciary responsibility while still driving growth. Holding Bitcoin on your company's balance sheet could positively affect equity value. Navigating this uncharted territory requires courage and vision, but those who embrace the change can reap significant rewards in the future.
The growing acceptance of Bitcoin among businesses, especially startups, indicates a broader shift. These businesses see Bitcoin as a cheatcode, requiring adaptability, risk-taking, and new rules. As this trend continues, the narrative of Bitcoin as a speculative asset is being replaced by a deeper understanding of its potential as a foundational element in corporate strategy. The message is clear: the future is here, and Bitcoin is part of it.
Bitcoin only.
🤙 onward
"Wealth in this new regime flows directly from innovation, not optimization; that is, wealth is not gained by perfecting the known, but by imperfectly seizing the unknown." - Kevin Kelly
